ML for wind analytics, built by listening to Mother Nature

Downstream is building hyperlocal resolution for wind risk modeling, with susceptibility estimates that account for surroundings.

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Scroll down to learn what we’re building

Modeling a hypothetical hurricane over Naples, FL

When a hurricane arrives, the land surface varies the winds

Imagine a hurricane making landfall, bringing gusts of 112 mph offshore. Once those winds reach land, they are slowed by the drag of buildings and vegetation. By the far side of town, gusts have lost much of their speed.

What current catastrophe models capture1

At the scale of 1 km, the details of wind are lost. The bay, the canal, the beach, and open fields all meld into a rough estimate for the entire neighborhood.

Downstream: Modeling the wind at each house

Gusts reach A straight off the ocean, and B only after rows of roofs and trees. Downstream is capturing the difference.

House A: a pale one-story home with a hip roof, open beach and Gulf upwind.

A110mph

House B: a one-story home of similar build, with neighbors' roofs, palms and a live oak upwind.

B97mphoriginal model: 104 mph for both

For the same house with the same construction in the same cell, a few blocks of distance have a real impact on hazard. We’re here to price that difference.
Illustrative
A B A B A B 1 · YOUR ORIGINAL LOSS COST ESTIMATE 2 · DOWNSTREAM SUSCEPTIBILITY MODIFIER 3 · ADJUSTED LOSS $1,840 a year for A and B A ×1.22 · B ×0.78 A $2,245 · B $1,435 a year MORE EXPOSEDSHELTERED ILLUSTRATIVE VALUES 1 · YOUR ORIGINAL LOSS COST ESTIMATE 2 · DOWNSTREAM SUSCEPTIBILITY MODIFIER 3 · ADJUSTED LOSS $1,840 a year for A and B A ×1.22 · B ×0.78 A $2,245 · B $1,435 a year MORE EXPOSEDSHELTERED ILLUSTRATIVE VALUES

The susceptibility modifier we’re building provides a single multiplier per property

You’ll be able to call our API and receive a multiplier that adjusts your existing loss cost to arrive at a more accurate picture of the true risk.

Learn more about the product

Learn more

  1. Six hip-roofed homes, drives and palms, in plan.

    Our product

    One modifier per property, on the loss you already model.

  2. Wind lines bending around a block of houses, in plan.

    The physics

    Gain intuition with our toy model and learn more about the engineering science behind our product.

  3. A street beside a marsh after Hurricane Laura, in plan.

    Case studies

    Hurricane Laura on one street, and Ian across a landfall.

  4. A weather mast with an anemometer on a dune.

    Isaias event analysis

    Our free post-event footprint, and how we built it.

  5. A survey plane over a neighborhood the morning after a storm.

    Research

    Before-and-after imagery of 1.3 million properties.

  6. The Downstream flag in front of a house, the street beyond turning into a grid.

    Our story

    Who we are, and why this is possible now.

Sources

  1. About 1 km: leading vendor models’ public filings with the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. ↩
Pen sketch of a shore neighborhood at sunrise, hip-roofed houses and palms above a beach.

Get in touch

We love feedback. If you’re working through interesting problems in wind risk, let’s chat.

ted@downstream.earth
marketing@downstream.earth

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