Property-level wind risk analytics

Sharper wind risk at the building level.

Downstream delivers hyperlocal wind intelligence on top of the catastrophe models the market already runs, helping underwriters see where building-level risk diverges from modelled expectation.

Property wind lab 100 mph wind

Same buildings. Same incoming wind. Different surroundings.

Home A · with tree shelter
88 mph · sheltered
Home B · without tree shelter
100 mph · exposed

Wind west to east

Illustrative comparison, not a wind simulation or loss prediction. Both buildings have the same construction. Tree shelter varies with wind direction, tree height, spacing, and condition; the reduction shown is an example, not a measured estimate.

Home A · illustrative wind exposure 88 mph

Illustrative shelter factor: 88% of the incoming wind speed

Home B · illustrative wind exposure 100 mph

No tree shelter: 100% of the incoming wind speed

The problem

Cat models price hurricanes at a kilometre. Losses happen at a building.

Two properties one street apart can carry very different true wind risk. Roof form, elevation, tree cover, nearby structures, and channelled wind flow all matter, but those signals rarely fit cleanly into legacy exposure schemas.

~1 km Typical native hazard resolution
850k+ Labelled buildings in public damage datasets

The solution

One multiplier. Zero change to your stack.

Downstream learns where observed damage diverges from modelled expectation, then delivers that difference per property.

01 - Input

Your model output

Your existing model supplies the baseline loss estimate.

Wind vulnerability curve A schematic curve rises from low expected damage at lower wind speeds toward high damage at higher speeds. Wind speed Expected damage
02 - Downstream

Property-level wind-damage foundation model

We start with the property.

Identify the building and its characteristics in property-level imagery.

NOAA post-storm imagery · Hurricane Ian

Then we look around it.

Nearby buildings shape a property’s immediate surroundings and wind exposure.

NOAA post-storm imagery · Hurricane Ian

Then we bring in the wind.

Connect the property to the storm’s wind field and event history.

Hurricane Ian · modelled gusts (left), radar reflectivity (right)

Learn from what happened.

We combine property, context, and wind information using machine learning. Our training targets are proprietary damage labels covering historical hurricanes across the past decade.

Learning from property, context, and windThree inputs feed a layered neural network trained against the proprietary observed Damage Label.PropertyContextWindDamage LabelTraining targetNeural network
03 - Output

Property-adjusted view

Apply a property-specific multiplier to your baseline estimate to support selection, pricing, and portfolio decisions.

BaselineMultiplierAdjusted100×0.8=80Illustrative values · multipliers may be above or below 1

Founding team background

Insurance, catastrophe science, and ML under one roof.

The founding team brings training and operating experience from leading research, aerospace, and risk analytics institutions.

Harvard
Berkeley
NASA

Get in touch

Let's sharpen the market's view of wind, one building at a time.

marketing@downstream.earth