Property-level wind risk analytics

Sharper wind risk at the building level.

Downstream delivers hyperlocal wind intelligence on top of the catastrophe models the market already runs, helping underwriters see where building-level risk diverges from modelled expectation.

Property wind lab 100 mph wind

The wind is identical. Property characteristics change the expected loss.

Home A · reinforced + sheltered
Sheltered load
Home B · exposed + aging roof
Eave pressure peak

Wind west to east

Home A · peak local velocity 88 mph

Tree shelter reduces wall flow; velocity peaks over the roof

Home B · peak local velocity 118 mph

Flow accelerates above the freestream at the exposed eave

The problem

Cat models price hurricanes at a kilometre. Losses happen at a building.

Two properties one street apart can carry very different true wind risk. Roof form, elevation, tree cover, nearby structures, and channelled wind flow all matter, but those signals rarely fit cleanly into legacy exposure schemas.

~1 km Typical native hazard resolution
850k+ Labelled buildings in public damage datasets

The solution

One multiplier. Zero change to your stack.

Downstream learns where observed damage diverges from modelled expectation, then delivers that difference per property.

01 - Input

Your model output

The AAL or loss estimate your licensed catastrophe model already produces for the risk.

02 - Downstream

Property-level wind-damage foundation model

Learns a latent damage signal from property imagery, geospatial context, weather history, and observed post-event damage.

03 - Output

Property-adjusted view

Same workflow, same model, sharper view: select, price, and steer at the building.

Underlying magic

We model the residual, not the storm.

Baseline first

A defensible fragility baseline establishes what the physics says should have happened.

Then the surprise

The model learns where reality diverged: construction, exposure, micro-terrain, vegetation, and built-environment signals the grid cannot see.

Rides on, never replaces

Output is an auditable multiplier on the model you already license, designed for adoption without a re-platforming decision.

Founding team background

Insurance, catastrophe science, and ML under one roof.

The founding team brings training and operating experience from leading research, aerospace, and risk analytics institutions.

Harvard
Berkeley
NASA

Get in touch

Let's sharpen the market's view of wind, one building at a time.

hello@downstream.earth